bubble thinking





기질에 의해; 흥분하기 쉽게.


TAMPA, Fla.— At a watch party at the Hideaway bar on Tuesday, the mood grew from cautious optimism to tepid enthusiasm to outright elation as Donald J. Trump once again did the unthinkable, proved all the pointy-headed intellectuals wrong and appeared to have won Florida, according to A.P. projections.
Earlier in the night, Tyler Turner had watched the TV, dismayed as Hillary Clinton racked up wins in New York, New Jersey and Illinois. But then the tide started to shift in Mr. Trump’s favor.
How did he feel now? “A little bit better,” he said, still hedging his bets. “Once they call Florida and Michigan, then we’ll be good.”
Outside his final rally in Florida before the election on Monday, Mr. Trump’s supporters said the same thing over and over: Everyone they knew was voting Trump, so how could he lose? The political class (including, full disclosure, yours truly) scoffed at the Trump voters’ bubble thinking, while we had fallen into the exact same trap of complacent thinking: There was no way it could come to this, right?
There was, and it did.
Earlier in the evening, right after the polls closed, Trump supporters watched early returns anxiously.
“Right now I’m feeling pretty good,” Shirley, an Air Force veteran who didn’t want to give her last name, told me. “I want a woman president as bad as anyone else, but out of all the women in America, this is the best you have?”
Beverly Minardi said she’d been hounded by reporters all day. She pulled up a photo of a local news story, featuring her, from earlier Tuesday. She said she’s a “reformed Democrat,” and voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary. Now, she says if Mrs. Clinton wins, “I would be very disappointed.”
Connie Mosier, who lives upstairs from the bar, was sitting on a folding chair next to her fluffy dog, Sophie. Earlier in the day, she had coordinated a prayer for Mr. Trump with her family over text message.
“If he doesn’t get in, this will probably be the last time I ever vote,” she said, and sounded only half joking. “We have no place to go but up, and he’s our best shot.”
As the crowd started to get more excited, with early results rolling in, one man sat toward the back, snacking on bar food and looking shockingly zen. “I’m just trying to enjoy it while it lasts,” he said.
Emma Roller is a contributing opinion writer.
CONTINUED

Paul Krugman: Our Unknown Country
We still don’t know who will win the electoral college, although as I write this it looks — incredibly, horribly — as if the odds now favor Donald J. Trump. What we do know is that people like me, and probably like most readers of The New York Times, truly didn’t understand the country we live in. We thought that our fellow citizens would not, in the end, vote for a candidate so manifestly unqualified for high office, so temperamentally unsound, so scary yet ludicrous.
We thought that the nation, while far from having transcended racial prejudice and misogyny, had become vastly more open and tolerant over time.
We thought that the great majority of Americans valued democratic norms and the rule of law.
It turns out that we were wrong. There turn out to be a huge number of people — white people, living mainly in rural areas — who don’t share at all our idea of what America is about. For them, it is about blood and soil, about traditional patriarchy and racial hierarchy. And there were many other people who might not share those anti-democratic values, but who nonetheless were willing to vote for anyone bearing the Republican label.
I don’t know how we go forward from here. Is America a failed state and society? It looks truly possible. I guess we have to pick ourselves up and try to find a way forward, but this has been a night of terrible revelations, and I don’t think it’s self-indulgent to feel quite a lot of despair.